We can expect to experience stock markets to depreciate to a frightening extend in May and during September or October 2009 with the worst happening late September.

What lies before us?

1. Another large bulge of failure on residential mortgages
2. The commencement of large mortgage catastrophes on commercial property foreclosures such as shopping malls, mortgage failures on office buildings and other commercial properties.
3. The start of monstrous failures on vehicle loans and seizures.
4. A more than $40 billion hit on the nose for bank lenders due to credit card defaults.
5. The last part of the play; just before the final curtain drops – Credit defaults with no down payments in the vicinity of $500 trillion.These five factors tied together in one time frame at once could turn the 10800 flue cough of the Dow Jones into a more serious bronchitis situation of about 7250 down to even 5600.

In late September, early October, the effects could turn to other markets such as London, Asian and Tokyo including the New York markets to take a plunge second to none.

Currently the unemployment rate in the whole of the USA is close to 16%. Late in 2009, the real unemployment rate will touch the 25% mark as it was in the 1930’s Depression.

The good news however is that recovery is possible, but not before 2015.

The Great Depression(1928) - History repeating?

The United States’ current economic situation has many citizens of all walks of life, looking back at the country’s history of recessions experienced, for some answers. Recessions are determined by the GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which is tracked by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.

A recession occurs when the GDP declines along with employment, investment or corporate profits. Since the Great Depression of 1929, the US has survived more than ten recessions. These recessions were of varying length and intensity. The most intense of these past recessions, beginning with the Great Depression, are:

The Great Depression – The Great Depression is the longest recession the United States has had to date. Beginning in 1929 with the stock market crash, it lasted for 43 months. The banking collapse in the US at the beginning of the Great Depression caused a global recession. Unfortunately, before the economy was fully recovered, the US was hit with another small recession in 1937.

1973 Oil Crisis – Although the 1973 Oil Crisis recession only lasted 16 months, it had a huge impact on the US economy. The world was taught a lesson when the Middle East closed their oil tap to the world. As oil prices quadrupled, US government spending was higher than normal to support the Vietnam War. Rising prices and increasing unemployment led to staggering inflation in the United States.

1979 Energy Crisis – This recession was due to the Iranian revolution. Once again, the price of oil increased from $15.85 over the following 12 months period to a shocking $39.50, the highest price for oil until the beginning of March 2008.

Great Commodities Depression – The Great Commodities Depression marks a twenty-year period in our economic history (1980-2000) when the price of commodities (raw materials) had an extended decline.

Do you feel like this guy - don't be under pressure

Surviving the recession is on the top of every investors mind during this financial crisis. Prices keep rising. Salaries are staying the same. Companies are downsizing. And the market is ever-changing. So how do you survive? Use the following tips to ensure your financial security during this time.

Know where your money is
If you are making investments, then you should know where your money is going. Do not allow investment bankers to use your money without knowing exactly for what it is being used. As an investor, you should receive monthly statements listing your investments and their balances. To survive the recession, you should understand and track your investments.

You may be taking a risk
The current financial crisis has caused all investment ventures to be risky. Surviving the recession means that you need to re-evaluate your stock portfolio and make adjustments as necessary.

Fund managers are not successful
Even the most successful fund managers have been faltering in today’s economic crisis. If your current plan to survive the recession is to involve a fund manager, you should consider switching to index funds to minimize losses during this recession.

Large cash savings more important than ever
If your portfolio consists of a large number of money-market accounts and certificate of deposits, you are ahead of the game. You may not get rich off these investments, but when trying to survive a recession, they will provide you with cash flow.

The new market
Surviving the recession definitely means that you need to understand the current market. The financial crisis has changed the market forever. The market makes tremendous changes daily. Stocks will be on a downward trend for a while and suddenly have a major increase in a single day. Watch the market closely to learn its new trends and you should survive the recession without a hitch.

Global economic crisis & worldwide inflation

We have all been affected by the global economic crisis that faces our world today. From the average American Family with 2.2 kids and a dream to own a home to some of the largest financial institutions in the world, the failure of the economy worldwide has had a major impact.

The global economic crisis began with steadily increasing prices on necessities such as groceries. As the price of milk, eggs, bread, fruits and vegetable rose to unseen heights, the price of oil also increased making it almost impossible for companies worldwide to make a profit, without increasing their prices.

As prices inflated across the nation and across the world, the individual became the most affected by the global economic crisis. Salaries were not increasing at the same rate as products. Companies could not afford to give pay raises due to the rising costs of other products. It seemed as if the global economic crisis could not get any worse, but it did.

Along with worldwide inflation, several other industries were also in crises. The banking industry was dealing with a credit crisis that was only made worse by a legislative act that was only meant to help – The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008. The effect was bank failure across both the United States and Europe. The housing industry was also facing a crisis.

Bank failures caused a liquidity problem that led to the rise of the sub-prime mortgage rate. A section of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act allowed the federal government to pay interest on the increasing amounts in the Federal Reserve. These interest payments led to problems in credit markets around the world only worsening the global economic crisis.

As this was occurring, the subprime mortgage rate increased, once again placing more of a burden on individuals worldwide and exacerbating the global economic crisis. Thus, the stock market, the banking industry and the housing industry all fell to the lowest level in recent years.

• When a 3-D Secure transaction has been made, the liability to repay a customer in a charge back situation passes from the vendor to the customers card issuing bank.
• Customers can shop on the site with more confidence.
• The incidence of fraudulent sales will reduce (cards will not be accepted without the 3-D secure password)
• There is the potential to negotiate lower transaction charges with the acquiring bank

Card type affected are:

Visa, Maestro, Mastercard, Solo, Switch

Time scale: all sites using the above cards need to be be 3-D Secure compliant by June 07 or these cards will not be accepted.

The payment gateway and e-commerce site implications are as follows. Each payment gateway, Protx, Worldpay, Secpay etc… will modify their servers to include an extra step where the cardholder is taken to a page on the card issuers website where they enrol (first time only) and are authorised (via insertion of a password). On successful authorisation the cardholder is then taken back to the payment gateway site and continues the payment transaction as before.

Website modifications are required and Bathcomms are able to do these for existing VirtueMart equipped shopping carts. It may be prudent to make some information on 3-D secure available to customers on the site too and we are assessing this. Note too that with the change in Switch to Maestro in June 2007, this logo should be deleted from sites.